Sunday, April 27, 2008

Metals : Gold selling new hobby!

Confirming my previous analysis, gold is sliding down so fast, panic is continuing pushing gold down and down to its critical point, it's 38.6% fibonacci level and neck line, that's it, a retracement or a big free fall, but which side is it supposed to be?
A down trend channel already confirmed, it's top line now on 918-922$, so a retracement will not be effective for our shorting positions, it would be dangerous if it break through that level and give a confirmation over 928$ which will support it till 953$, but i don't expect a scenario like this, the one i expect would be a break down through that critical point, taking out the next weak support "872$", what more??!, do dream it yourself, we would having 842$, 789$ and 718$ as a final target for gold.
One thing left to be told, keep your opened short positions, and if you want to be greedy, let's open more after closing under 882$, selling now is a hobby more than just a trading style, at least at the moment, wake up gold lovers.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Metals : Gold selling panic would continue, part II



As we expected our first target was done when gold reached 872$/Oz, after that it retraced to 952$/Oz the area which capped it 2 times before, and as we expected it wasn't able to break into that level, once it touched it, it reversed back down again targeting support level "905" which we referred to last time, and it touched 904.30, retraced to close at 917$, but now, what is coming??!

This chart tells us that, price was capped three times under 952 price area, which is now a very hard resistance for gold to break above, it went down and tipped 904.30 "905 support key", retraced a little to 917, looking at these inputs, aside with all fundamental inputs, daily chart gives us a strong signal that gold will continue its way down, we have 2 scenarios:

1- Breaking of 882 and closing under it will give us a confirmation for forming a head & shoulders which would be targetting 718$/Oz

2- Breaking 872 "last bottom" will confirm wave (C) begining which will target 842$ at least later 789$.

As i said in previous analysis, it's over for gold for now, rally ended.